What Are Risk-Neutral Probabilities? Risk-neutral probabilities are probabilities of potential future outcomes adjusted for risk, which are then used to compute expected asset values. In other words, ...

One of the big changes in election coverage that emerged in 2016 was the widespread use of predictions expressed as probabilities. Once the private vice of data geeks, just about everyone in the ...

Clinical trial transition probabilities, the probability that a drug product moves from one clinical phase to the next, are used to assess the efficiency of drug development and in the valuation of ...

Data Khosrowshahi says the pace of change in technology, consumer behaviour, and global events has made long-term predictions ...

Building a good sales forecast involves techniques that fall somewhere between science and art. While it is possible to construct a rigorous objective forecasting model, the human element in sales ...

John Quiggin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their ...

In 2011, when President Obama was presented with circumstantial evidence of Osama bin Laden's whereabouts, he faced a range of estimates — anywhere from 30 to 95 percent that the man spotted in the ...