Here are a five worst case scenarios for global oil markets, split between what Israel and Iran may do next in an unpredictable and rapidly escalating conflict.

A sustained surge in oil prices is likely to complicate the U.S. fight against inflation. A $10-a-barrel increase would boost year-over-year growth in the Consumer Price Index by 0.5 percentage points,

Oil prices leaped, and stocks slumped on worries that escalating violence following Israel’s attack on Iranian nuclear and military targets could damage the flow of crude around the world, along with the global economy.

A sustained rise in the price of crude oil, which jumped sharply after Israel attacked Iran, could hurt consumers and President Trump’s efforts to bring down energy costs.

Rather, it is geopolitical factors—specifically, escalating tensions in the Middle East—that are unsettling markets and pushing prices higher.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says rising global oil prices following Israeli strikes on Iran will strengthen Russia by increasing its oil revenues, aiding its war effort in Ukraine.

Market reaction to Israel's attacks on Iranian nuclear sites sends oil and gold prices jumping while the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq sink as investors abandon riskier assets.

Israeli energy company Bazan said its Haifa oil refinery suffered pipeline and transmission line damage during Iran’s overnight missile barrage. Refining core facilities continue to operate at the site,