What Are Risk-Neutral Probabilities? Risk-neutral probabilities are probabilities of potential future outcomes adjusted for risk, which are then used to compute expected asset values. In other words, ...

Clinical trial transition probabilities, the probability that a drug product moves from one clinical phase to the next, are used to assess the efficiency of drug development and in the valuation of ...

Building a good sales forecast involves techniques that fall somewhere between science and art. While it is possible to construct a rigorous objective forecasting model, the human element in sales ...

John Quiggin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their ...

"Yes or no: was there once life on Mars?" I can't say. "What about intelligent life?"' That seems most unlikely, but again, I can't really say. The simple yes-or-no framework has no place for shadings ...

In 2011, when President Obama was presented with circumstantial evidence of Osama bin Laden's whereabouts, he faced a range of estimates — anywhere from 30 to 95 percent that the man spotted in the ...

Introduction Have you ever heard anyone say the chance of something happening is “50–50”? What does that actually mean? This phrase has something to do with probability. Probability tells you how ...